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Climate change and mountain areas: cooperation
in an unpredictable future
Martin F. Price |
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Most scientists agree that climate change is already
here, and that it is influencing mountain environments -
and often the people who inhabit and visit them. The
retreat of glaciers is among the clearest evidence that
climate change is occurring; alpine species are moving
upwards; some species are already highly threatened or
extinct. People who manage and depend on mountain
environments require information to plan for the future.
Unfortunately, the General Circulation Models that are
generally used to predict future climates do not provide
consistent information for mountain ranges. One reason
is that the spatial resolution of these models is
inadequate; another is that, for most ranges, we have
inadequate data to validate the models. Alternative
and/or complementary modelling and statistical
approaches are available; but in many cases, scenario
techniques using local expert knowledge may be most
appropriate for developing predictions of future
climates. Likely effects of climate change in mountain
areas include the upslope migration of ecological belts
and associated flora and fauna; changes in the relative
proportion and timing of different types of
precipitation and runoff; and more frequent extreme
events. Understanding all of these changes and their
interactions requires effective communication and
cooperation among scientists of many disciplines.
Equally, coping with and adapting to these changes will
require increased cooperation between diverse
stakeholders, especially in and around protected areas.
Climate change gives added impetus to the need for
conservation networks and bioregional approaches; and
these implicitly require close cooperation between all
those concerned to ensure a future for both mountain
ecosystems and the communities who depend on them. |
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